This Easter, news.com.au reports, Australians are facing a surreal retail moment: Lindt’s iconic 1kg chocolate bunny now retails for up to AUD 120. Even more eye-catching? It’s secured in an anti-theft box.
While the Reddit thread had jokes aplenty ("#freethebunny"), Lindt’s response was serious: “The high cocoa price is the main reason.” And they’re right.
According to JP Morgan, cocoa prices surged to $10,000 per metric ton in early 2024 due to global supply shortages. Crop disease and climate volatility devastated West African harvests, where 80% of the world’s cocoa is grown. Smallholder farmers, facing structural challenges and low reinvestment, couldn’t recover quickly enough.
Even with projected production recovery in 2025, JP Morgan expects prices to stay elevated, potentially resulting in low double-digit inflation for chocolate products across the board.
The chocolate crisis is more than just high prices. It’s a visibility issue.
Too many brands underestimated their exposure to climate-driven commodity disruption. Replanting lagged. Risk signals were ignored. And now, with depleted inventories and firm demand, pricing has no cushion, and consumers are feeling the pinch.
The outcome? Confectionery prices are rising fast. Premium brands are passing costs to consumers. And backlash is building as people see shrinkflation and triple-digit price tags on what used to be everyday indulgences.
But this isn’t just about cocoa.
It’s a wake-up call for any brand tied to agricultural commodities. Nature risk is now business risk. Crop forecasts, climate volatility models, and land degradation indicators should be as central to sourcing as logistics and price.
At Earth Blox, we help brands integrate climate and nature data into procurement strategies — quickly, visually, and without complexity. Because if you can’t see the storm coming, you’ll pay the price when it hits.